South Africa’s power system remained under pressure in March 2025, with the energy availability factor (EAF) stuck at 57.5%, virtually unchanged from February’s 57.4%. With winter around the corner and demand set to climb, doubts are growing about the utility’s ability to keep the lights on.
This is according to Minerals Council South Africa’s electricity update for February to March.
Minerals Council SA economist André Lourens says the average demand in March stood at 22 509MW, while dispatchable generation averaged 22 357MW – necessitating a total of 55 hours of load shedding during the month.
From 7 to 10 March, a sudden loss of 2 700MW in generation capacity – including Koeberg Unit 2 (930MW) and two Kusile units – led to increased reliance on open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to meet demand. As these reserves were depleted, load shedding became necessary to restore emergency reserves.
Later, on 19 March, additional load shedding was implemented following the failure of five generating units, two of which were from the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric system in Mozambique.
“Breakdowns were frequent and without warning in March,” says Lourens.
South Africa was subjected to 176 hours of load shedding in Q1
Source: Eskom and Minerals Council SA
The council says when tracking the historical EAF over recent years, 2025 is trending downward after a promising start to the year. It appears to be aligning with the lower levels seen in the first few months of 2024 and remains well below the pre-Covid highs of 2019.
In 2018, the EAF was around 71.9%.
Recent data by Statistics South Africa shows that seasonally adjusted real electricity generation fell by 2.5% year on year in February.
“The Stats SA data aligns with data from Eskom showing that February was a particularly challenging month for Eskom, as it recorded the largest gap between minimum and maximum EAF levels since 2022 – highlighting the system’s fragility,” says Lourens.
Dark winter?
Eskom is under pressure to stabilise its existing generation capacity and improve the reliability of its coal-fired fleet.
It has reaffirmed its commitment to maintenance and improving the reliability of repairs.
But according to Lourens, as the winter months approach, Eskom has not addressed any immediate concerns regarding its ability to meet the seasonal increase in electricity demand. -By Anathi Madubela
moneyweb.co.za
