OIL touched the highest level in almost two months, with the market gripped by turmoil in the Middle East and political uncertainty in some of the world’s biggest economies.
Brent crude and West Texas intermediate edged up, hitting their highest intraday levels since April 30. Brent traded above $87 a barrel, while the US benchmark rose toward $83.
Israel is lurching closer to a full-blown war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while its fight against Hamas in Gaza continues. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen have stepped up attacks on commercial shipping in the region. Iran, which backs all three militant groups, is holding a snap election Friday following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
“The idea of a tightening market remains very much the remit of futures at present, and is where much of the anxiety of what might just happen in the Middle East is represented,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM, in a research note.
Looming votes elsewhere are also grabbing traders’ attention. In France, voters are set to go the polls this weekend for the first round of a snap election that has roiled markets.
And in the US, a distratrous debate for President Joe Biden on Thursday has led some Democrats to question whether they should quickly replace him with another candidate to face Republican Donald Trump in November’s election.
Separately, traders are awaiting US personal consumption data due Friday for clues on the path forward for US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he continues to expect one interest rate cut this year in the fourth quarter as inflation shows progress.
Crude has traded in a narrow range of about $2 this week as bullish momentum counteracts weak near-term fundamentals for the economy. US Gulf Coast inventories surged last week, while overall stockpiles are the highest since April. There are also signs of lackluster fuel consumption.
Persistent concerns about China’s economic outlook remain an issue for the market. The nation’s refiners have been forced to cut operating rates and prolong maintenance due to a demand slowdown in the world’s biggest crude importer.
Still, prompt spreads are signaling some strength, with the measure for Brent rallying to over $1 a barrel in a bullish backwardation structure ahead of the contract expiry.
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