Nigeria’s economy is 30% bigger than previously estimated, after statistics authorities changed the way they calculate gross domestic product and incorporated new sectors into their calculations.
GDP at current prices stood at 372.8 trillion naira ($243 billion) in 2024, compared with the International Monetary Fund’s $187.6 billion forecast, after the base year for calculating the figure was shifted to 2019. GDP was 314 trillion naira in 2023, the statistics agency said at a briefing in Abuja, the nation’s capital on Monday. The economy remains Africa’s fourth-biggest, lagging behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
The upward revision means some key fiscal metrics, including the ratio of debt as a percentage of GDP, may now look better.
Shoppers browse fresh produce for sale at the Lagos-Island market in Lagos, Nigeria.
“This is by far the most comprehensive rebasing ever carried out by the bureau,” Semiu Adeyemi Adeniran, the West African nation’s statistician general said at the briefing. “Digital activities, pension fund administrators and the informal sector activities, where more than 90% of Nigerians are employed, are now being measured” Adeyemi said.
The statistics agency recalculated the value of GDP based on production patterns in 2019, and gave some sectors a bigger weighting to better reflect the structure of the economy such as real estate.
Africa’s top oil producer lost its status as the continent’s largest economy in mid-2023 after President Bola Tinubu introduced reforms to free float the naira. The currency has depreciated almost 70% against the dollar since then.
First quarter
The economy expanded an annual 3.1% in the three months through March, compared with 3.8% in the prior quarter, its slowest pace in a year, as the agriculture sector stagnated.
The oil sector rose 1.87% in the first quarter, compared with 4.7% in the prior three months, even as production surpassed the nation’s OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the first time since 2022.
The non-oil sector expanded 3.2% from 3.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.
