It happens from time to time that someone questions the integrity of the survey methods and accuracy of the figures produced by Statistics SA. The result is always the same – the head of Stats SA comes out all guns blazing to prove the statistical validity of his team’s work.
The most recent debate around Stats SA’s figures erupted when Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie remarked that the unemployment rate in South Africa could be as low as 10%. Stats SA sticks to its estimate of an official unemployment rate of nearly 32.9% – and the expanded unemployment rate of 43.1%.
Fourie argues that Stats SA does not count everyone who is working in the informal sector.
His view is probably influenced by the fact that Capitec has 24 million clients.
He noted that nearly three million of Capitec’s clients earn an income without formal employment, and more than one million use their bank accounts to operate a small business.
Fourie says the data suggests that some four million people are earning an income in the informal sector.
In addition, the latest figures from the different banks in SA show that Standard Bank has around 12 million local clients, Absa has 12.7 million, FNB has 8.6 million, and Nedbank has 7.6 million. TymeBank states that it has 10 million clients.
The total comes to nearly 75 million. It raises the question of why anybody would need a bank account – and apparently multiple accounts at more than one bank – if they don’t have money or don’t earn money somehow.
Perhaps these figures support Fourie’s argument.
Not so, says Stats SA head
But the Capitec CEO received more criticism than support. Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke issued a statement saying that Stats SA does measure the informal sector.
“The informal economy is not ignored,” says Maluleke.
“Stats SA produces several statistical products that measure this sector, including the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) and the Survey of Employers and the Self-Employed. The informal sector is measured, tracked and reported on consistently. Stats SA follows the guidelines set by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for defining the informal sector, which is characterised primarily by the registration status and size of enterprises or businesses.
“Our methods stand open to rigorous examination, inviting scrutiny to ensure integrity and trustworthiness.
“The data we produce is publicly accessible, fostering a culture of openness,” he adds.
“Our concepts, definitions and classifications are meticulously crafted, guided by the highest global standards and best practices. We take pride in our commitment to transparency, clearly articulating what we measure, and the methods employed to derive our insights.”
Maluleke appeared on national television to assure people that the statistics are accurate.
He took Fourie on: “If he says unemployment is sitting at 10%, it means 10% of 25 million, we’d have 2.5 million people who are unemployed in South Africa and then it means that we have 22.5 million people who are employed. The Sars [South African Revenue Service], from personal income tax doesn’t even have such numbers for starters.”
He says it is incorrect and misleading to suggest that Stats SA somehow “misses” those who are employed in the informal sector.
The latest QLFS for the first quarter of 2025 estimates the working age population at 41.7 million of which slightly more than 25 million are considered to be in the labour force. The rest of the people are not working and not looking for work, including those still at school or studying, in jail or those who have a (wealthy and generous) spouse or family to provide for them.
Around 16.8 million are classified as employed, including 3.3 million in the informal sector and more than one million in private households (domestic workers and gardeners). That leaves 8.3 million unemployed and looking for work.
There are another nearly 3.5 million people who are classified as discouraged workseekers. The Stats SA report defines a discouraged workseeker as “a person who was not employed during the reference period, wanted to work, was available to work or to start a business, but did not take active steps to find work during the last four weeks” preceding the date of the survey. – bbc.com
